Monday, August 30, 2010

Market Far Below Trendline - NOT

I was watching the Larry Kudlow show and Don Luskin made a comment about the economy being far below the trendline.  This brought to mind a chart of the stock market which I constructed several months ago.

















This shows the Dow Jones Industrials being far above the long term trendline NOT below.  The market peak in 1929 is clearly above.  The peak in 1966 is still below the upper trendline and in 2000 and 2007 was clearly above.  Based on this, we are probably due for 6 to 8 more years of sideways to down movement with possible correction to Dow 4000.  Remember, this is a semi-log chart showing the normal long term economic growth.  Why anyone would think more than this is possible is beyond me.  Maybe things "ARE DIFFERENT THIS TIME".